Brave investors are starting to back America, the home of the credit crunch, as evidence grows that it could be the first to pull itself out of the global downturn.
The dollar has hit a near two-year high against the pound and a six-month peak against the euro. It has rallied 7% against sterling in the past month - from $2 to $1.86 - gaining 3% in the past week alone.
Traders are betting that central banks will have to cut rates in Britain and the eurozone to avert a recession, whereas in America the next move in rates is likely to be up. Higher interest rates are generally good news for a country’s currency.
“This is the start of a major move: the dollar will get even stronger,” said Alan Steel at Alan Steel Asset Management. “Anyone sitting in a US fund in the last three or four weeks will have seen a nice bounce - anything up to 12%.”
Professionals are more positive about America than they have been for six years, the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers shows. A record net 58% of managers believe the dollar is undervalued, some 38% are most likely to be overweight in the US over the next year, and 12% of asset allocators are currently overweight - meaning they have more than their global benchmark in the country.
The US stock market has fallen since the crisis in sub-prime mortgages sparked the credit crunch a year ago, although not as much as other global markets - and the decline has been diluted by the dollar’s rise.
The S&P 500 is down 9.3% on the year, but dollar-adjusted the fall is only 2.8%. The tech-based Nasdaq is up 4.7% for sterling investors.
The FTSE All-Share is down 12% and the FTSE Eurotop 100 has lost 19.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has dived 10.9% in the past six months.
Nevertheless, investors have shied away from US equities amid fears the world’s biggest economy faces a period of stagflation.
Those grew last week on news that foreclosures in the crisis-hit housing market were rising at an annual rate of 55%, as the cost of living rose to a 17-year high of 5.6%.
However, analysts said that cheaper commodities, particularly waning oil prices, meant inflation might have peaked.
Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. “If you’re in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US,” he said.
“It has shown remarkable resilience. It went into the credit crunch first and it’ll be the first to come out.”
Others, though, say there is some way to go. Global write-downs total about $450 billion - little over half the $945 billion the International Monetary Fund expects.
Kully Samra at broker-dealer Charles Schwab predicts the final figure will top $1 trillion, and said the US was on the second downward stroke of a W-shaped recession.
“If you’re going to wait for the US economy to recover then it’s probably not quite the time to invest, but if you’re looking for somewhere relatively stable with better potential for recovery than other parts [of the world] look at the US: it’s not going to lose 50% overnight like China,” he said.
Samra likes the healthcare sector for its defensive properties - companies like orthopaedic specialist Zimmer Holdings and Medtronic, the medical technology company.
Among American funds, Steel recommends Martin Currie North America, a £393m fund geared to US exporters and information technology; Neptune US Opportunities, a £53m fund with 12.6% of its assets in the “undervalued” biotech sector; and the £239m Gartmore US Opportunities, a contrarian play with a 28.5% weighting in the battered financials sector.
Global funds with high exposure to the US are also worth a look: CF Richmond Core, an £11.6m fund, and the £3.7 billion M&G Global Basics have 66.6% and 30.8% respectively in America.
Another way of gaining exposure is through European companies with the highest sales exposure to the Americas. Excluding financials, these include Lon-don-listed Hochschild Mining (100%); pipe-line products firm Wellstream Holdings (90.5%); BBA Aviation (77%); retail jeweller Signet (73.8%); and biopharmaceutical company Shire (73.8%), HSBC said.
Others, though, are bearish. Mark Dampier at adviser Hargreaves Lansdown points to AA-rated manager Philip Gibbs, who has almost 60% of his Jupiter Financial Opportunities in cash and fixed-interest instruments. “He has a great track record so I’d leave it to someone like him and not try to time the market,” said Dampier.
American property might remain in the doldrums, but a growing number of British buyers are seeing opportunities to buy in on the cheap. Foreign-exchange firm World First has seen a 38% year-on-year jump in inquiries from Britons looking to buy in the four months to the end of July.
Around 45% of business at Top Producers Realty, a property broker based in Naples, Florida, has come from Britons so far this year, compared with 28% in 2007.
Craig Peevor, 37, from West Bromwich, works for a property company in Britain and recently bought two bungalows in Buffalo, New York State, for a total of £14,000 and is letting them to American families.
He said: “With the state of the US property market at the moment, I effectively got the bungalow half-price. I am planning to buy one or two properties a year to give me an additional income.”
Those thinking of following in his footsteps should think ahead. “If you’re looking at that US dream home, buying dollars and keeping them in your back pocket may be a very sensible play,” said Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First.
